Line Movement: A Definitive Guide for Your 2023 Sports Betting Strategy

If the point spread contracts, it means the gap between the two teams or sides has decreased (+3.5 to +0.5). Truly great sports bettors can smell when something is not right with a betting line, and will get in at just the right time before the line jumps. When the game finished to the Steelers many sportsbooks had one of the worst days in history as bettors won big on both sides.

Timing Bets Around Line Movement

Our grid provides vital information at a glance, but you can take things a step further by clicking on a specific matchup. Check out records against the spread, over/under frequency, head-to-head results, and much more. For example, if you get New York Yankees moneyline at -125 odds but it’s -130 everywhere else, you’re already saving $5 on a bet to win $100. The Nittany Lions, 24.5-point road favorites at winless UCLA, lost to the Bruins in the biggest upset of the season with regard to point spread.

In baseball, +1.5 means the team is the underdog on the run line (baseball’s version of the spread). It means the team can win the game or lose by one run and still cover the spread. OddsTrader makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event. Please be aware of and respect the laws regarding sports betting for your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state.

The most usual causes for line movement could be injuries, team suspensions, leaks of a team’s strategic gameplan, weather or travel conditions. Penn State closed as -5,000 favorite on the money line, with UCLA around a 15-1 underdog at ESPN BET. Since 2010, our systems the report reveals returned a consistent winning percentage of 54%-55% ATS across all major sports. For instance, you can bet MLB playoff odds from chances to make the postseason, win divisional titles, take the ALCS/NLCS, and go all the way to the World Series final. Explore over/unders for today’s MLB games by selecting “total” in preferences.

A common practice in the sports betting industry is known as “booking faces.” Sportsbooks “book faces” when they adjust lines based on who wagers money, rather than the amount wagered. Sportsbooks might “book faces” when they notice a group of particularly smart/sharp bettors have all taken one side of the line. To illustrate this concept, let’s say you are tracking the lines for a series of basketball games between the Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks. Over the course of the series, you notice the same line (the moneyline) for the Nets consistently moves in favor of the Bucks one hour before tipoff, even when the Nets are playing at home.

MLB Betting Line Movement Explained

Just do a little homework before you bet to find out which MLB sports betting app is best for you. Some books may be better for moneyline bets while others might have more diverse player prop bets available, for example. Also, don’t forget to check for any new sportsbooks like the ESPN BET app that could provide better value or more lucrative promotions. Betting line movement is one of the most important aspects of baseball betting. MLB line movement occurs when money comes in on one side or another in any given game. These bets can be on the MLB spread, the money line, or the over under, it doesn’t actually matter the bet type because all baseball betting features line movement.

Let’s get into what market movement (or line movement) is and how sharp and square money affects it. You can see the historical betting results, line movement and betting trends for all the games that have been played or even matchups that may’ve been postponed by weather. Another great feature on the MLB Matchup History is a link to the Recap, which tells bettors how the outcome was determined. Or, you can take the 1 ½ runs with an underdog and lower your return on investment.

If a popular team is expected to draw heavy public action, the line may move in your favor closer to first pitch. Underdog bettors often benefit from waiting, especially when marquee teams play in prime-time slots. If the public sees a line jump 15 points within a short window, it’s often tied to early access to injury reports or sharp syndicate wagers reacting faster than the average fan. These sharp moves usually occur on under-the-radar games, not headline matchups. The matchup between the starting pitchers is an important factor in how oddsmakers set the lines for each game. It’s also a good place for bettors to start when handicapping baseball matchups.

If you bet on the Cowboys, you will win provided they either win the game outright or don’t lose by four points or more. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual. There are lots of different sports betting strategies that let you leverage your knowledge of line movement.

• Sign up to our newsletter to get WSN’s latest hands-on reviews, expert advice, and exclusive offers delivered straight to your inbox.
• Learn more about how odds work with our how to bet on baseball guide.
• When combined with line shopping and a disciplined approach, these elements provide a significant advantage.
• Successfully betting the middle depends on you getting in on the right side of action early.
• Sharp bettors hit early, books overcorrect, and casual bettors push the line in the opposite direction.
• Allen began the season tied for second on the board but was not an overly popular selection among bettors.

This page is your guide to line movements and how they relate to sports gambling. The projected starting pitchers are listed in the odds tool and more details can be found by clicking on the matchup button. See today’s MLB Over/Under odds by choosing the total tab above the odds tool. Updated moneyline odds can be seen by selecting ML above the odds tool. Opening odds are from a reputable international sportsbook with the highest limits.

For example, if the Pirates move from +150 to +125 without injury news, it’s likely sharp confidence in the mound matchup. These subtle moves may not draw headlines but offer value when correctly interpreted. Watch for totals moving in the opposite direction of the side—this often means respect for the pitcher, not the offense. On a moneyline baseball bet, the team you bet on needs to win the game outright.

If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time (ie, more points between the teams), it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog. Remember that a lot of casual bettors don’t even consider odds or the point spread too strongly. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet. As we have seen, generally, lines move because a large majority of money has been placed on one side of a single bet.

MLB parlays allow you to combine multiple picks in a single wager. Bettors looking for archived results can find them on the MLB Matchups and the historical numbers are a great resource. You can scroll through every matchup, starting in spring training and going through the regular season.

Understanding line movement will make you a more well-rounded sports bettor. The more experience you have in the world of betting, the more you will develop a feel for how lines move. All of the forms of line movement we have looked at closely in this section, point spread, totals, and money line, are common in the NBA. The worst-case scenario, in this case, is you win one of your bets and lose the other. This would result in a comparatively small loss of $10, based on the vigorish for the sportsbook. One of the classic ways to take advantage of line movement is by using a strategy called betting the middle.

In other words, it allows you to see which side of the line is attracting the biggest bets and largest share of total money wagered. The bet % metric shows you what percentage of the total betting volume falls on either side of the betting line. In other words, it allows you to see which side of the line is taking more action in terms of total number of wagers placed.